MAT: In Serbia, GDP increased by 1.9% in the first two months of 2026, but the budget deficit also increased

The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Serbia in the first two months of 2026 increased by about 1.9% year-on-year, which is a 0.9 percentage point better result compared to the same period in 2025, but the budget deficit is 44.8 billion dinars higher than in the same period in 2025, says the new issue of the journal Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends (MAT).

The key sources of growth were the sectors: Other Services, Construction and Net Taxes, while the negative contribution came from Industry.

– Industrial production in February 2026 decreased slightly compared to the same month last year, and taking into account all the geopolitical challenges, problems with the operations of the Pancevo Refinery, and the fact that February this year had one less working day compared to February last year, we can say that this result of the industry is decent – it is stated in the text Assessment of Economic Activity. In the first two months of this year, goods exports were 1.6% higher year-on-year, and goods imports were 3.5% lower year-on-year. Approximately 85% of goods imports were covered, as stated, by exports, which is a significantly better result compared to a year earlier (80.7%). In the first two months of this year, the Serbian budget recorded a deficit of 70.5 billion dinars, which is 44.8 billion dinars higher than the same period in 2025. The value of goods turnover in retail trade in February 2026 was 4.6% higher in real terms than in the same month last year. In January 2026, the average net salary increased by 10.2% nominally and 7.6% in real terms. In January and February 2026, monthly inflation was recorded at 0.3% and 0.5%, and annual inflation at 2.4% and 2.5%. Since September 2025, inflation has been within the NBS target at a level below three percent, which is primarily a result of margin restrictions in the trade of consumer goods, which ceased to apply as of March 2026.

Serbia had higher annual inflation than the EU average in February 2026. Annual inflation in Serbia in February was 2.5%, 2.1% in the European Union, and 1.9% in the Eurozone.

Of the 27 EU member states, seven countries had higher annual inflation than Serbia, with the highest rates recorded in Romania (8.3%), Slovakia (four percent) and Croatia (3.9%).

Ekonomski Institut a.d. Beograd

Makroeknomske analize i trendovi

Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends

MAT

real GDP

budget deficit

inflation