Are we facing a crisis like the one from 2008? – Economic consequences of the war in the Middle East

While countries, including Serbia, are these days intensively limiting fuel prices without leaving them to the market, and some European ones are even charging drivers with foreign license plates a higher price per liter, analysts agree that the world has yet to see the economic consequences of the war in the Middle East. What those consequences will be and how big they will be will primarily depend on how long the conflicts last.

– The war in the Middle East could lead to the world’s worst energy crisis in decades – warned this week the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol.

Oil, as well as natural gas, produced by Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, reach the world through the Strait of Hormuz. A quarter of the world’s maritime oil trade passes through this strait, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA). At least that was the case until the start of the Iran-Iran war on February 28, when the flow of crude oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz was 20 million barrels per day.

The disruption in the strait is not only causing the world to have a problem with oil supplies, but also with other goods. About a third of global fertilizer trade also passes through the strait.

And the consequences of reduced fertilizer supplies could easily lead to problems with food prices...

Both global and domestic analysts point out that the economic consequences of this conflict in the Middle East could be more serious and far-reaching if the war continues, i.e. the blockade of energy and petrochemical supplies.

Ekonomski fakultet Beograd

Momentum Securities a.d. Novi Sad

Međunarodni monetarni fond-MMF Beograd

International Energy Agency

IEA

Fatih Birol

Strait of Hormuz