Serbia’s credit rating according to Moody’s at the level of Ba2

In its latest report on Serbia, the rating agency Moody’s has maintained the country’s credit rating at Ba2, while the outlook has been changed from positive to stable, the National Bank of Serbia announced.

The agency states that Serbia’s credit rating is supported by a strong fiscal position and a declining public debt trajectory, which creates fiscal space and enables the absorption of external shocks. In addition, fiscal risks related to the operations of state-owned enterprises have been significantly reduced in recent years, largely due to reforms, primarily in the energy sector, the NBS stated.

– The advisory arrangement with the International Monetary Fund, in the form of the Policy Coordination Instrument, according to the agency’s assessment, represents an important anchor for the sustainability of public finances, particularly in view of the planned state investments related to hosting the EXPO exhibition. Public debt as a share of gross domestic product is expected to remain below 45% in the coming years, thereby staying below the debt level of countries with the same credit rating – the NBS emphasized.

The arrangement with the International Monetary Fund also contributes to maintaining the country’s overall macroeconomic stability and helps secure external reserves in the event of potential shocks, thereby mitigating the negative effects of geopolitical and domestic political risks on economic growth prospects. Regarding economic activity, it is noted that political protests in the first half of 2025 negatively affected consumer and investor confidence, which also had a negative impact on foreign direct investment inflows, while the imposition of sanctions on the Oil Industry of Serbia due to majority Russian ownership in the second half of the year resulted in a decline in industrial production, the statement specifies.

Nevertheless, the agency expects real gross domestic product growth to reach 3.3% this year and to accelerate further next year as a result of hosting the EXPO exhibition.

– The manufacturing sector will continue to attract significant foreign direct investment, albeit to a lesser extent than in previous years, with investments increasingly directed toward higher value-added activities. Although the outlook was changed from positive to stable due to heightened political and geopolitical risks, the statement notes that economic fundamentals have remained preserved and that the fiscal and financial position has been further strengthened – the NBS stated.

Narodna banka Srbije Beograd

Moody’s

National Bank of Serbia

credit rating