Forbes: MOL and Gazprom talks on NIS fall through

Although the Minister of Energy, while announcing a one-month extension of NIS’s operating license, stated that negotiations between MOL and Gazprom regarding the sale-and-purchase transaction were continuing, Forbes Serbia has received different information. A source close to the Serbian government and familiar with the situation claims that the negotiations have effectively collapsed.

The indication is that Gazprom has no intention of selling its stake in Naftna industrija Srbije (NIS) and is merely buying time by remaining silent on the matter. However, as of the time of writing, the MOL Group has neither confirmed nor denied this information.

The Hungarian company did not respond to Forbes Serbia’s inquiries regarding whether they had even requested a license extension, as NIS had done. They also asked whether negotiations with the Russian side concerning the purchase of a majority stake were still ongoing, and what had stalled the talks. It is worth recalling that, earlier this year, MOL announced that a preliminary agreement on the sale-and-purchase contract had been reached.

Several months later, in May 2026, reports emerged that the negotiations were nearing completion. The license extension was explained at the time by the fact that the two parties needed just a little more time to sign the contract, allowing MOL to finally acquire the majority stake and take over management of NIS, while enabling Gazprom to exit its ownership position, which was the objective of the sanctions imposed long ago.

News that MOL had received a license extension until the end of October to continue negotiations on purchasing a stake in the company arrived only this morning. However, our source notes that even this does not prove that negotiations are actually taking place.

Which side doesn’t want a conclusion

For the Serbian government, announcing that negotiations had failed and that the process was starting over, right in the middle of an election campaign, would not be welcome news.

On the other hand, the US regulator itself clearly has reasons for agreeing to repeatedly postpone the D-Day deadline over the past months, even now, following suggestions from several congressmen that this practice should stop and that OFAC should finally begin enforcing sanctions against NIS.

Forbes’s well-informed source says the United States clearly does not wish to strain relations with either Serbia or the Russian Federation. For one thing, relations with Serbia are currently in a phase of easing tensions. The source also points to the energy agreement between the two countries, which led to the decision to negotiate with Bechtel on the construction of the Djerdap 3 pumped-storage hydroelectric plant, a major investment.

– Simply put, by continually extending the license for NIS, a company of strategic importance to our state and economy, OFAC enables it to keep operating. It also allows Gazprom to remain the majority owner. However, we see that the license is being extended for only one month at a time, and previously, it was even for two-week periods. Thus, the timeframe is short enough for the situation to change quickly, should it be determined that a shift in sanctions policy is necessary – he says.

OFAC shows consideration for Serbia

Strahinja Obrenovic, an assistant professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences, also tells Forbes Serbia that OFAC clearly does not wish to worsen Serbia’s economic position by imposing sanctions. He believes they are guided by the fact that implementing sanctions would harm Serbia far more than it would Gazprom.

– It is difficult to predict how long this situation will last, or rather, how long OFAC will continue to extend NIS’s operating license. Initially, given the insistence on the withdrawal of Russian capital from ownership, we assumed this would happen immediately, yet, we see that months have passed without it occurring. The situation is similar with Lukoil or Rosneft – Obrenovic explains. He points to the state of relations between Moscow and Washington, specifically the differences between the Biden and Trump administrations regarding sanctions and the war in Ukraine, as well as the meeting between Trump and Putin and the proposed trilateral talks involving Russia, the US, and Ukraine.

– The Pancevo refinery was shut down for about 40 days. That timeframe aligns with the period required for maintenance. Anything longer would have led to serious consequences during the restart process. It would have caused economic damage to Serbia and seriously jeopardized its energy security. I believe the US is aware of this as well – says Obrenovic.

He also highlights the possibility that the Russian side is exploiting the situation to buy time, hoping that sanctions against NIS will ultimately be lifted.

Return to nationalization

The Forbes Serbia source notes that the state taking over the management of NIS has always been an option. Although the authorities mention it hesitantly and only as a last resort, that option would become necessary if sanctions were actually imposed on NIS.

The source states that exiting NIS would not cause significant economic damage to the Russian side, though it would represent a geopolitical defeat. Conversely, for Serbia, assuming control would become inevitable if OFAC were to truly “lose patience,” a scenario local authorities mentioned as early as two months ago.

This is because, regardless of the political damage incurred by “seizing Russian assets,” the economic damage resulting from sanctions would be far greater.

– We could not allow the refinery to stop operating, nor could we allow NIS to be under sanctions. That is not an option, and everyone is aware of it. In such a case, the state would have to take over management and pay Gazprom for its stake by depositing the funds into an account, regardless of whether or not they could immediately access that money – says the Forbes Serbia source.

To date, our country has not exercised its right of first refusal, even though this right is guaranteed by the agreement signed with the Russian side back in 2008. If the negotiations between MOL and Gazprom were to truly come to an end, or if a termination were announced, that right would no longer be relevant.

Unless, of course, a third-party buyer were sought. However, according to the source, it is far more likely that Serbia would face a choice - straining relations with Russia or suffering serious disruption to its energy and economic sectors, should the sanctions be fully implemented.

MOL

Gazprom

Naftna industrija Srbije

NIS

Strahinja Obrenović