Markovic: Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC would be a good partner for NIS

Energy expert Zeljko Markovic told RTS that the best partners for NIS were those oil companies that had the largest turnover and could best work with NIS, such as ADNOC from Abu Dhabi.

A day after the authorities in Serbia announced that the Russian owners had agreed to sell their majority stake of 56.15%, President Aleksandar Vucic explained that Belgrade couldn’t insist on the right of first refusal and that he was aware that there were three partners with which the Russians were negotiating about NIS. Energy expert Zeljko Markovic said that a positive decision by Washington depended on the position of the US administration.

– So far, we have had a lot of delays, almost nine months, and I am afraid that the US administration’s strategy is different now. If NIS has offered a big step and explained that it is close to signing the contract, then we can expect a possible extension. However, as things stand, there may not be such an extension – Markovic stated.

Why it is important for NIS to obtain a license to continue operations

Markovic says that it is important for NIS to obtain a license as soon as possible so that the Refinery in Pancevo does not stop.

– When the Refinery stops, it takes some time to get it back into production. If NIS does not receive an extension, that is a signal, there is a threat of secondary sanctions – says Markovic.

This, as he says, is a signal to banks to stop cooperating with NIS, which puts NIS in a much more difficult situation.

– If accounts are blocked, we cannot count on NIS’s retail network. Although there are enough derivatives in reserve, there may be a problem, they will have to be distributed through other gas stations and then there may be increased congestion in the procurement of fuel and difficult supply – adds Markovic.

Negotiations on the exit of Russian ownership

Last week, NIS received permission from the US administration to negotiate the exit of Russian ownership from the company, by February 13.

– This license gives NIS the opportunity to negotiate and sends a message that if concrete agreements are reached within three months - it will be possible to obtain a license from OFAC, to sign such an agreement, and to settle the transaction; whether it will be through a dedicated account, to wait for sanctions against Russia to be lifted, whether some direct payments will be possible - it is not clear, it depends on the position of OFAC, which is holding the strings – explains Markovic.

New partner in NIS, who will replace the Russians?

There has been public speculation for months about who could buy NIS. The most frequently mentioned companies are Hungarian MOL, followed by British Petroleum, Austrian OMV, Greeks, and an Arab company from Abu Dhabi.

– If we look at all the companies that have been mentioned, the best choice are the largest companies that have the largest turnover and that can best work with NIS. Of those that have been mentioned, ADNOC is in the first place, a company with more than 400 billion in annual revenue worldwide, and other companies are good partners for NIS – says Markovic.

The question, as he adds, is whether we are on the trail of these companies, whether they are interested, so it is difficult to talk too much about it.

Small gas stations and suppliers depend on NIS

NIS is also a supplier to other companies operating in our market.

– If a solution is not found, it would make supply more difficult, small gas stations and suppliers depend on NIS. If NIS does not supply them with petroleum products, it will be difficult for them to reorient themselves and find another supplier now. Some may have to close their business, but there is a danger for small suppliers – concluded Markovic.

About Lukoil and OFAC

The deadline for resolving Lukoil is approaching, and OFAC has warned that nothing can be done and no sale of Lukoil’s foreign assets must be made if they do not give the green light.

– Even contracts must contain clauses that they will be approved if OFAC approves. Only then will they have legal effect and come into force. Also, all transactions that occur during that sale must also be approved by OFAC. The same thing we have already talked about in the case of NIS – Markovic noted.

Consequences on GDP and inflation

The situation in the whole of Europe with supply may be jeopardized, it is getting complicated especially in the region and in those countries that have Russian oil companies.

– This could have direct consequences for the decline in GDP in Europe and the increase in inflation due to these problems. Namely, the International Energy Agency made some estimates in its “outlook” for 2026. We have a paradoxical situation. The price of oil on the market is falling, but the price of derivatives is rising. The problem is due to the refining business and, let us recall, refinery margins are at a two-year high – Markovic pointed out.

NIS a.d. Novi Sad

Lukoil Srbija a.d. Beograd

NIS

ADNOC

Lukoil

OFAC

Željko Marković

sale of Russian share

negotiations

US sanctions