Radosavljevic: Hostile takeover of NIS would be disastrous, would affect gas supply

The sanctions on NIS have been postponed for another eight days, and FEFA professor Goran Radosavljevic assesses that this indicates that the sanctions will come into force, which, according to him, could completely disrupt the Serbian economy. He points out that the so-called hostile takeover of NIS by the state would be disastrous because it could jeopardize the gas arrangement with Russia.

Commenting on the latest postponement of the entry into force of US sanctions on NIS, professor Radosavljevic said on the “Novi dan” show on N1 that the implementation of sanctions could completely disrupt the Serbian economy, but that it did not seem to him that Serbia was preparing for sanctions to come into force.

As he explained, the eight-day postponement can only change something if a solution has already been agreed upon, and it takes a day, or two to three days, for it to be implemented.

Professor Radosavljevic says that one of the solutions would be for the Russian side to exit the ownership of NIS, but adds that he does not see that solution as possible.

– That solution would be for the Serbian side to take over the management of NIS, or some segments of management, refinery, distribution. If there is an agreement, those eight days are enough to implement it. If there is, it can be extended for six months, but the sanctions will not be lifted because the procedure is complicated – he said.

He notes that there is no new argument for postponing the sanctions except that a solution has been found and adds that the American side probably said that it would not give another month of delay, but asked for the solution to be implemented immediately.

Asked what the possible scenarios are when it comes to NIS, Professor Radosavljevic points out that, from the start, the solution could have been what was used before in Europe, especially in Germany.

– And that is to come to an agreement with the Russian side - let us manage it until other global problems are resolved. The company will continue to operate under state ownership and it will be a friendly takeover by the state – said the guest of “Novi dan” and added that Russia’s return to NIS would be negotiated later in the peace negotiations, once peace was agreed in Ukraine.

Other options, he says, are a hostile takeover or letting the company go bankrupt, which in his opinion would be catastrophic.

– In order for an agreement to be reached, both sides must want an agreement. NIS is not overly important economically to the Russian side, but politically it is, and they are probably afraid of losing political influence by someone taking over NIS – said Radosavljevic.

He notes that he is convinced that some kind of negotiations took place, knowing what the negative consequences could be, and that a solution will be found.

NIS a.d. Novi Sad

Air Serbia ad Beograd

HIP-Petrohemija a.d. Pančevo

FEFA Beograd

Naftna industrija Srbije

NIS

FEFA

Petrohemija

Air Serbia

Goran Radosavljević

sanctions on NIS

fuel reserves