REBEC 2025 opens – How macroeconomic events in the world affect the real estate sector in the region

Neither the global nor regional macroeconomic situation, which greatly affects the real estate sector, investment in them and their development, is easy to comment on in the current circumstances of customs warfare in the world, high levels of uncertainty and unpredictable political and economic situations on the global stage. But, as in previous crisis periods, the real estate sector in the region is adapting to daily changes and challenges by applying new modalities and using new business opportunities that appear in this area. Briefly put, these are just some of the views and assessments that were presented at the opening of the eighteenth edition of the REBEC conference, which is taking place yesterday and today in Hall 4 of the Belgrade Fair, and which brings together professionals in the field of real estate development.

An institutional panel was held at the opening with a review of the economic prospects in the Southeast European region and how current economic indicators affect the field of real estate development.

One of the biggest challenges affecting macroeconomic developments both globally and in the region is certainly the tariffs of the Donald Trump administration. They act as a strong negative shock to global economic growth, while the decisions of the new US administration are very unpredictable. They create enormous uncertainty for both businesses and households, it was emphasized at the opening of the panel moderated by Vladimir Vasic, a financial consultant.

– These tariffs have the power to change trade flows, capital flows, also changing inflation trajectories, currency values... When it comes to our region, the first estimate of the negative impact on growth in the region was 0.3 percentage points, with Serbia, Slovakia and Romania being the most exposed to this negative impact in this wider region of Central and Southeastern Europe. When it comes to Serbia, growth was also below expectations, only 2% year-on-year, and the key reasons are the sharp slowdown in investments, which fell for the first time since the pandemic, and we also had a slowdown in private consumption, which is the key driver of growth in Serbia, despite the fact that wages continue to grow – Tijana Matijasevic from the Economic Research Department at Banca Intesa pointed out, among other things.

As she stated, regarding the outlook for the whole year, the GDP projection for Serbia will probably be lowered to 3.2% this year, which is almost 1 percentage point lower than what was expected in December.

– For next year, our best-case scenario is a projection of 4%, which will be driven by domestic demand. The key risks to this projection are primarily global uncertainty. The final outcome will then also depend on the upcoming agricultural season. Also, one of the factors of uncertainty here in Serbia is the political situation, which certainly contributes to these weaker results during the first quarter, affecting both private consumption and investments – she underlined.

Anina Milanovic, Director of the International Cooperation and Development Sector of the Securities Commission, addressed the area of alternatives for financing projects in Serbia.

– I am talking about all types of projects, not just real estate. There are a bunch, I would say, of concepts that have not yet been fully explored because we have traditional ways of accessing capital, such as loans. I believe that we need to find new ways of accessing capital. First, in recent years we have been talking a lot about digitalization and digital assets. But the things that I always want, I like to emphasize, are investment funds. In Serbia, we have a set of legal documents, a special set of initiatives related to investment funds. In order to harmonize our legislation with the legislation of the European Union, we adopted two separate laws related to investment funds and the law on alternative investment funds. We have EU funds, but also alternative funds, which are primarily intended for professional investors. And a new category of investors, which was not common in Serbian legislation before, semi-professional investors. So, in fact, now we have an opportunity for people who invest EUR 5,000 and have enough knowledge to participate in some projects in which it was not possible to participate before the legal changes – she pointed out.

Speaking about the macroeconomic situation, Rick van Heumen, CEO of Eurasian Real Estate Investment Management, which manages the first alternative real estate investment fund licensed by the Securities Commission, points out that there is currently some caution. As he says, it exists because they are dealing with foreign money, “private wallets”, and currently the circumstances in the world, such as wars and Trump’s tariffs, are such that no one can say what will happen.

Cristophe Negre, senior partner at Systema Capital Partners, who is engaged in real estate development projects in Serbia, pointed out that with the political events in Serbia, they have not noticed a decline in business, but we have seen people who have suspended their investments a little.

– They expect the situation to be resolved one way or another, but it is true that we have seen some potential foreign direct investments in Serbia being suspended. So, now we are waiting. As for further activities, we believe in Serbia and I would like to say that I am optimistic and I still believe that despite the pandemic, despite everything, Serbia will succeed. Since I come from France, I have a lot of work, so I see different contexts, economies and levels of development. Serbia is still a developing economy, which is good in my opinion. Tariffs will naturally affect everything, but Serbia will still be competitive at this level. It will still be a very good country to relocate business activities, because there are strong human resources. Serbia is still a very good alternative, although I know that many lights are currently flashing in warning, but I still believe that Serbia has a very good card to play in the future. Whether Serbia joins the EU or not, that is up to you, but I still think that Serbia’s competitiveness is good – stated Negre.

On the first day of REBEC 2025, insights and projections were provided and plans were presented regarding the areas of hospitality, general and social housing, project development, design and interior design, branded residences and urban planning, while on the second day, focus will be on topics related to the impact of artificial intelligence on the RE sector, the digital world of real estate, the development of the retail sector, the future of retail, the development of offices...

Festlent d.o.o. Beograd

Banca Intesa a.d. Beograd

Eurasian Real Estate Investment Management doo Beograd

SYSTEMA CAPITAL PARTNERS d.o.o Beograd

Komisija za hartije od vrednosti Republike Srbije Beograd

Tijana Matijašević

Anina Milanović

Rick van Heumen

Cristophe Negre

Vladimir Vasić

Rebec 2025