NBS: Credit rating of Serbia according to S&P agency BBB- investment grade with stable outlook

Standard&Poor’s Global Ratings has published its periodic review for Serbia’s credit rating, which is at BBB- investment grade with a stable outlook, announced the National Bank of Serbia (NBS).

In the report, the agency underscores that Serbia has maintained solid medium-term GDP growth prospects despite uncertainties at home and in the international environment, and the recent hike in global oil prices. The report also says that improved fiscal and external position and the built-up buffers provide a strong backstop against potential shocks and that inflation has fallen back and is trending close to the NBS’s target midpoint, the NBS notes.

According to the agency, economic growth should pick up from 2.0% in 2025 to 3.3% in 2026, supported by accelerated investments, strong private consumption and service exports. The faster growth of investments should also be facilitated by public investments linked to the infrastructure construction for the purposes of the international exhibition Expo 2027. The assumption behind this projection is that there would be a change in the ownership structure of NIS, given the company’s importance in supplying Serbia with petroleum products, especially bearing in mind the rising geopolitical tensions across the globe.

The agency estimates that the share of current account deficit in GDP in the current year should temporarily edge up to 5.1% amid increased import to accommodate the investment cycle needs and then retreat to an average of around 3.7% in the following years.

– Though FDI inflows in 2025 were lower due to the impact of global factors, the high base from last year and the socio-political developments at home, they remained comparatively high relative to the region. It is estimated that, going forward, FDI would remain a key source of external financing. Serbia’s external position remains supported by high FX reserves as well, measuring EUR 29.4 bn at end-January, which is significantly above all the adequacy criteria and is a key anchor in preserving the stability of the exchange rate. FX reserves are not only high, but also of favorable composition, with a major share of gold reserves – the NBS notes.

Beside the stable external position, the agency’s report also underlines the strong fiscal position with a credible medium-term fiscal framework supported by the IMF’s Policy Coordination Instrument. It is estimated that the general government deficit will remain below 3% of GDP until 2029, ensuring the continuation of the downward trajectory of public debt-to-GDP ratio and stabilization at around 36% in the medium run.

– The agency notes that inflation was reduced to 2.4% y-o-y in January, largely thanks to the lower food prices which were trimmed based on the decree capping margins in both wholesale and retail sale. According to the agency, inflation should continue within the bounds of the NBS’s target tolerance band of 3±1.5%, averaging 3.3% in 2026. Its projected dynamics within the target band for the coming period is in line with the NBS’s current projection – the NBS points out.

According to the agency’s estimate, Serbia’s financial stability has been preserved with the support of a well-capitalized, profitable and liquid banking sector which predominantly relies on domestic deposits. The capital adequacy ratio was significantly above the regulatory requirements at end-Q3 2025, measuring 21.0%, while NPLs were at a historically lowest level, indicating a resilient asset quality in conditions of robust corporate and household lending growth, the NBS press release concludes.

Narodna banka Srbije Beograd

National Bank of Serbia

Standard and Poors

credit rating of Serbia