Quantum computing: Why we mustn’t ignore the three biggest cybersecurity threats

One of the most talked-about technological challenges of the moment is the rise of quantum computing and its potential impact on digital security. Kaspersky experts have identified three risks associated with quantum computing that require a swift response from the cybersecurity community.

What does Moore’s Law have to do with it?

Silicon technologies are set to reach their limits in the near future. Moore’s Law, which predicted that transistor density would double every two years, has slowed significantly in recent years as transistors are now atomic-sized, making it even more difficult to miniaturize them.

As classical computers approach their physical limits, their performance growth slows, limiting progress in areas that rely on complex calculations.

Quantum computers, on the other hand, offer the potential to solve certain problems much faster than classical systems.

However, their practical application remains limited to narrow and experimental domains for now - current quantum computers have only a few hundred physical qubits and do not have a robust error correction system.

However, experts estimate that we could have a fully reliable quantum computer within the next decade. This would enable significant technological progress, but also open up a new era of cybersecurity threats.

The need for an urgent response to these threats is also supported by Deloitte’s Global Future of Cyber 2024 study, according to which 83% of organizations are already assessing or taking steps to mitigate the risks associated with quantum computing, which shows growing awareness and the existence of proactive strategies in the private sector.

Governments and corporations around the world are investing enormous amounts of money in the research and development of quantum technologies, further confirming the growing awareness of this topic and proactive planning.

The prerequisites for the widespread use of quantum computers in the next 10 to 15 years are already apparent:

• Projections for the 2030s suggest that computers will have thousands of qubits.

• Google has announced plans to build a machine with a million qubits by the end of the decade.

• Leading countries have launched national quantum programs, investing billions of dollars worldwide.

• 10 powerful quantum systems are expected to be operational within the next ten years.

A target for advanced actors: where do the risks lie?

Despite the expected computational advantages, the potential of quantum computers raises serious security concerns due to their ability to break today’s widely used encryption methods.

While it is unlikely that small-time criminals will get their hands on such advanced and expensive technology, the threat is very real when it comes to advanced persistent threats (APT groups) and state-backed actors.

Quantum computers could compromise traditional encryption methods that currently protect data in numerous digital systems, posing a direct threat to the global cybersecurity infrastructure.

Potential threats include intercepting and decrypting confidential diplomatic, military, and financial communications, as well as decrypting private negotiations in real time - which quantum systems could do much faster than classical computers, turning confidential conversations into publicly available information.

1. Store now, decrypt later: A key threat in the coming years

Threat actors are already collecting encrypted data today, with the intention of decrypting it in the future as quantum capabilities advance.

This “store now, decrypt later” tactic could expose sensitive information years after it is transmitted - including diplomatic correspondence, financial transactions, and private communications.

This concept is also confirmed by a joint statement of 18 EU member states:

“This is a threat in cases where the confidentiality of data must be protected over a long period of time (for example sensitive personal data or trade secrets)... We call on public administrations, critical infrastructure providers, IT companies, and the entire industry to make the transition to post-quantum cryptography an absolute priority... Organizations and governments should start the transition immediately.”

2. Sabotaging of blockchains and cryptocurrencies

Blockchain networks are not immune to quantum threats. Bitcoin’s digital signature algorithm (ECDSA), which relies on elliptic cryptography (EC), is particularly vulnerable.

Potential risks include:

• forging digital signatures, which threatens Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies,

• attacks on ECDSA mechanisms that protect crypto wallets,

• altering the history of blockchain transactions, thereby undermining the trust and integrity of the system.

3. Quantum-resistant ransomware solution: a new line of defense

It is possible that, in the future, developers and operators of advanced ransomware will start using post-quantum cryptography to protect their malicious programs.

Such “quantum-resistant” ransomware would be designed to resist decryption by both classical and quantum computers, making data recovery without paying a ransom almost impossible.

– Currently, quantum computing does not offer a way to decrypt files locked by existing ransomware. Data protection and recovery still depend on traditional security solutions and cooperation between law enforcement agencies, quantum technology researchers and international organizations – said Sergey Lozhkin, head of Kaspersky GReAT team for META and APAC.

Building a quantum-safe defense

Quantum computers do not yet pose a direct threat, but when they do, it may be too late to react.

Encrypted data that has long-term value is already at risk of future decryption.

“The cybersecurity community, IT companies, and governments must coordinate activities and efforts to prevent the risks that are coming, and to avoid creating systemic vulnerabilities that cannot be fixed later,” says Sergey Lozhkin.

He adds that “decision-makers need to develop clear strategies for migrating to post-quantum algorithms, while businesses and researchers should start implementing new security standards now.”

The transition to post-quantum cryptography will take years. Preparations must begin now, because the decisions we make today will define the resilience of our digital infrastructure for decades to come.

– Without international coordination and timely infrastructure upgrades, risks to financial, government and corporate data could become critical – Lozhkin warned.

Kaspersky

Kaspersky

Kaspersky GReAT team for META and APAC

Sergey Lozhkin

quantum computers

blockchain

confidential data

cybersecurity