In 2012 EBRD forecasts only a 0.1% economic growth

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts this year Serbia will generate a 0.1% growth while it will speed up in 2013 to 1.7%.

EBRD estimated that, in 2012, total GDP growth will be significantly lower than last years’ of some 2%, since Q1 has already seen an annual fall of 1.3%.

In the previous May report, the same rate was mentioned for this year, while 2013 forecast has been decreased from former 2.6%.

According to EBRD, Serbian economy is currently demonstrating weakness in many field while the biggest risk is exposure to debt crisis in Euro zone while the inflation rate after having record decrease, started rising again.

The Bank added that domestic Serbian policy increased insecurity before and after recent elections as well as that new government would face big challenge of fiscal condition management and public debt decrease.

For the whole region in transition, EBRD experts the economic growth to slow down from 4,6% in 2011 to 2.7% this year and that it would slowly speed up in 2013 to 3.2% as negative crisis consequences in Euro zone spread to East.

Expectations are bit lower for this and next year in comparison to May forecasts which is mostly the result of decreased economic growth in Russia which will decrease to 3.1% this year and 3.3% in 2013 from last year’s 4%, EBRD explained.

Most of the countries in Central and Southeast Europe which have been exposed to debt crisis in euro zone have already experienced economic growth slowdown but raw materials price decrease has now started to influence Russia and other countries exporting raw materials.

The most dangerous thing in the transitional region is the option of further crisis deterioration in euro zone. Timely implementation of decisions made on the last Summit of European Union leaders, held June 29, could mitigate that danger, EBRD said.