Energy Community: EUR 151 billion needed for region’s energy and climate plans by 2030

Countries in South-Eastern and Eastern Europe will need around EUR 151 billion in investment to implement their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) by 2030, most of which must come from the private sector, the Energy Community report estimates.

– The findings show that while the policy framework for the transition is largely in place, the focus now needs to shift from planning to implementation, supported by significant public and private investment - says the Energy Community analysis, based on an assessment of the content of the first National Energy and Climate Plans, which set out the pathways towards achieving the 2030 targets, and on the first national progress reports, which measure their implementation so far.

The region’s governments have estimated that implementing the NECP will require EUR 151 billion in investment, the report says, noting that this figure is based on partial information available in the NECP and should be used as a general indicator of the approximate amount of capital needed to maintain and modernize the energy sector, while simultaneously advancing decarbonization in other areas.

– Public financing is expected to cover only 10 to 30% of this amount, which is why private capital mobilization is necessary – the report estimates.

National plans generally identify the private sector as the main source of financing, but in many cases the source of financing has yet to be determined, especially in terms of expected support from donors or international financial institutions. Therefore, it concludes, it is necessary for the next NECPs to develop from political documents into investment roadmaps.

– By linking objectives to concrete projects, realistic cost estimates and financing strategies, future plans can provide a stronger basis for governments, investors and development partners to direct resources towards the infrastructure and technologies needed for the transition – the report estimates.

When it comes to solar and wind energy, the report estimates that capacities have increased in recent years and that governments in the region have set ambitious targets in their plans for further growth in the share of renewable energy sources in the electricity sector.

– However, renewables do not yet have a significant place in transport, while the heating sector will require much faster implementation of modern, low-carbon solutions, as traditional biomass use is gradually declining – it is estimated.

In terms of energy security goals, they are most often linked in national plans to diversifying choices and reducing import dependence, but measurable goals, clear priorities and links to specific policies are lacking.

– Few plans adequately address the ability to cope with limited or interrupted supply and stronger links are needed between the NECP and national risk and emergency preparedness planning – the report states.

Nine countries in South-Eastern and Eastern Europe, which are aspiring to become EU members, are assessed to have largely laid the foundations for an energy transition to achieve decarbonization in line with EU objectives.

– As contracting parties to the Energy Transition Treaty, they are legally obliged to do so, through reforms in preparation for accelerated integration into the EU energy market – the report states, adding that the total greenhouse gas reductions in these countries by 2030 will amount to 60.9% compared to 1990 levels.

It is assessed that the national plans are sufficiently ambitious and detailed in their roadmap, that they propose important measures to accelerate the energy transition and that the decarbonization of the energy sector is confirmed as key to achieving the energy and climate goals by 2030, but that the potential of regional cooperation is not fully exploited. The principle of “energy efficiency first”, which could reduce the costs of the transition, is also insufficiently applied, and just transition considerations, which are necessary for the energy transition to be socially just and inclusive, in particular for affected workers, communities and regions, are not sufficiently integrated.

The document assesses that some countries are on track to meet their commitments, while others urgently need to start implementing their national plans. The Energy Community Contracting Parties, as well as the EU Member States, are required to report on progress in implementing the NECPs every two years, in order to see whether they are on track to achieve their energy and climate plans, as well as to assess which policies have been effective and which have not, to identify shortcomings in a timely manner and to adjust measures in areas where progress is not satisfactory.

The first progress reports cover 2022 and 2023, when most NECPs were still under development and many structural reforms, policies and investment measures were in the planning phase, and therefore the data reported in 2025 show where countries were before the full implementation of the plans began. The Energy Community Secretariat is tasked with assessing the NECPs and monitoring their implementation, and this is the first report to include an assessment of the seven national plans adopted by Albania, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Ukraine, as well as the progress reports (NECPRs) submitted by Albania, Georgia, Moldova, North Macedonia, Serbia. Ukraine and the territory of Kosovo and Metohija.

The Contracting Parties should submit drafts of new NECPs for the period 2030-2040 by early 2028, and final plans by January 1, 2029.

– Future NECPs should strengthen the implementation of the energy efficiency first principle, accelerate the deployment of renewable energy sources (especially in transport and heating and cooling), integrate just transition considerations more systematically, provide more robust analysis and targets related to energy poverty and affordability, and better reflect the role and expected effects of carbon pricing in modelling and investment choices – the report highlights.

Energy Community

National Energy and Climate Plans

NECP