Serbia has trade surplus with Germany for first time

The trade between Serbia and Germany has continued to grow despite global challenges, according to the latest research by the German-Serbian Chamber of Commerce (AHK) presented yesterday, and for the first time in the past 20 years, since the research is conducted, Serbia had a trade surplus with Germany in 2024.

– The trade between Serbia and Germany amounted to EUR 9 billion last year. Last year, Serbia had a foreign trade surplus with Germany, which happened for the first time in the past 20 years. There are few countries in the world that have a foreign trade surplus with Germany – said the president of the AHK Chamber, Milan Grujic.

He reminded that more than 900 companies with German capital employed around 80,000 workers in Serbia.

– Germany’s total foreign trade with the world in 2024 fell by 2.6%, but the total growth in foreign trade between Germany and Serbia was 2%. The value of Serbian exports to Germany was EUR 4.6 billion, while Germany exported goods worth EUR 4.4 billion to Serbia, so the Serbian surplus was EUR 293 million – Grujic reminded at the presentation of the research on the business environment, which was conducted in March this year among AHK member companies.

He stated that the results of that year’s survey, which had been conducted in March and in which 21% of the members of the organization had participated, confirmed the stable confidence of German companies in Serbia as an investment destination.

– The fact that 88% of respondents would choose Serbia for investment again is particularly encouraging, which is an increase compared to the previous year. This is a clear signal that we are building a predictable and competitive business environment through joint efforts. However, the survey also clearly shows us where additional action is necessary - EU accession remains a key issue for most companies. On this path, as before, we remain partners and allies – said Grujic.

The survey results, as highlighted, show that the assessment of the economic situation in Serbia for 2025 has worsened, and with that the expectations for the end of this year as well. Also, the share of companies that assess their business as good has decreased from the initial 39% in 2024 to 34% this year. At the same time, the share of companies that assess their business as satisfactory has decreased slightly, by two percentage points. The percentage of companies that are dissatisfied with the current development has increased from six percent last year to 13% this year. The overall expectations of member companies have decreased, but have not turned into negative expectations, the research shows.

When it comes to business development and additional employment in 2025, 31% of surveyed companies plan to increase the number of employees, which is six percentage points less than last year. Slightly more than last year, 53% of companies do not plan any changes in the number of employees, while 16% of respondents assume that the number of employees in their companies will decrease, which is six percentage points more than the year before, it was said at the conference. During 2025, 33% of surveyed companies plan to increase investments, which is seven percentage points less than last year.

Also, 45% of the surveyed companies believe that the level of investment will remain unchanged, while the same number of respondents as in 2024 believe that the level of investment will decrease (22%). As highlighted, these results show that Serbia continues to offer attractive conditions for investors, but in accordance with the current economic circumstances and global challenges, many companies are shifting their priorities and, in some cases, plans for expanding investments are on hold. When assessing the factors affecting business in Serbia, 85 respondents assessed the process of approaching the EU as important and very important, and to improve the business environment, they believe that it is necessary to work on: the fight against corruption and crime, European integration, improving legal security and public administration, transparency in the public procurement process, political and social stability, as well as the availability of a skilled workforce.

Companies are satisfied with the development of the communication structure and the development of infrastructure as a whole, but also with the productivity and readiness of employees to work, and the dual vocational education system was again highlighted as a positive factor this year. When it comes to creating and motivating qualified personnel, companies are taking measures such as introducing additional financial incentives and salary increases above the market average, expanding internal training, increasing automation and digitalization of processes, as well as expanding cooperation with educational institutions, it was said at the conference.

As the biggest risks in business in 2025, companies perceive global and local economic and political circumstances, lack of legal certainty, reduced demand for products and services, and increased labor costs. The impact of the new economic policy of the United States of America is not perceived as relevant. From the perspective of the surveyed companies, the biggest global challenges in the next five years will be the increase in political influence on economic conditions, inflation and monetary policy, as well as digitalization and artificial intelligence. Cybersecurity and limited supply of raw materials and energy represent additional challenges that companies will face in the coming period.

German Ambassador to Serbia Anke Konrad stated that economic research on business conditions in Serbia had been an important indicator for the German economy for many years. She stated that the AHK survey on business conditions had been an important indicator for German companies for years.

– It reflects how close the economic relations between Germany and Serbia are and how satisfied German companies are in Serbia. The volume of trade exceeding nine billion euros and more than 900 companies with German capital speak for themselves. For the first time, Serbia also has a trade surplus with Germany, which is the result of the work being done here – said Konrad.

She recalled that the survey showed that the EU accession process was one of the biggest sources of dissatisfaction, as was the fight against corruption.

– Germany supports Serbia in these areas of activity and on its path to EU membership – said Konrad.

The results of a study prepared for AHK by the Center for Advanced Economic Studies (CEVES) from Belgrade were also presented at the press conference. The results show that, despite global economic challenges, trade relations between Serbia and Germany have shown resilience and stable growth. While global trade decreased by 4.5% in 2023, and total German trade fell by 3.3%, Germany's bilateral trade with Serbia increased by 11.1%, reaching EUR 9.37 billion. This growth trend continued in 2024, although at a slower pace of 7%.

It was emphasized that Germany remained Serbia’s most important trading partner, primarily thanks to Serbia’s strategic position, its developing infrastructure and its role as an attractive destination for near-shoring production in conditions of global instability. CEVES founder Kori Udovicki stated that, although the Serbian and German economies could not be compared in size and level of development, there were similarities and affinities that had always made the cooperation mutually beneficial and of great importance to Serbia.

– That is why I believe that even now, when the German economy is undergoing restructuring and Serbia must seek a new growth model, it is possible to find formulas for this cooperation to continue to develop – Udovicki pointed out.

AHK is part of a global network of 150 offices of German chambers of commerce abroad and delegations of German business in 93 countries. The chamber is actively working to improve economic conditions in Serbia and promote German-Serbian trade and cooperation in all economic aspects. With more than 450 members, AHK is the largest and one of the most important bilateral chambers in Serbia.

AHK Srbija

CEVES Beograd

German Serbian Chamber of Commerce

AHK

Center for Advanced Economic Studies

CEVES

Milan Grujić

Anke Konrad

Kori Udovički

trade between Serbia and Germany