No Russian gas via Ukraine from January 1, 2025?

Russian state-controlled gas giant Gazprom is making the assumption that no more gas will flow to Europe via Ukraine after December 31 in its internal planning for 2025, a person familiar with the plans said for Reuters.

According to the anonymous source familiar with Gazprom's plans, which are yet to be approved by the top management, Russia's base-case scenario is that there will be no gas transit via Ukraine next year, Reuters writes, as reported by the National Oil Committee of Serbia.

Russia's gas transit deal with Ukraine expires on December 31, 2024, and Ukraine has said it would not consider extending the transit deal.

On its part, Moscow has signaled it was open for talks and continuation of the flows via the route. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Moscow was ready to continue pumping gas through Ukraine.

– Moscow is also ready to continue pumping gas to Europe via alternative routes – said Putin.

The Reuters source said Russian gas exports to Europe and Turkey, excluding ex-Soviet countries, are expected to fall by a fifth in 2025 to just below 39 billion cubic meters from more than 49 billion cubic meters expected this year due to the end of the Ukrainian route.

The European natural gas market is in an uncertain balance as the winter begins and external factors will most likely lead to a fragile market at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, said Torgrim Reitan, the CFO of the Norwegian energy company Equinor.

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